Coming back into Palmer yesterday afternoon, this was the deck of clouds that greeted us. There was a hole in the layer, so letting down to good visual conditions below was not a problem. I paused and fired off a couple of photos as we neared the big yellow blanket. The wind was blowing out of the West forcing the clouds to build around the mountains and conditions were changing rapidly in the hills. When we headed into the mountains at 1PM it was absolutely severe clear without a cloud in-sight. 2 hours later the Talkeetna Mountains South of the Talkeetna River were impenetrable. The morning had started off with wide-spread fog, but the sun had burned away most of that through the morning. The West wind that kicked up later in the afternoon definitely aggravated something because clouds were forming fast.
Folks in Alaska always joke, “If you don’t like the weather wait 5 minutes and it will change”. While this is partially true I have found other areas of the United states to be much less stable. I remember being in Estes Park Colorado when we were rock climbing under hot sun one day, and skiing on fresh snow the next. When I lived in Chicago I remember feeling a cold air-mass move in so quickly I thought God had opened a freezer door in front of my face. South Central Alaska (where we mainly operate) maintains a relatively cold dry air-mass allowing weather patterns to maintain stability. This is a big bonus for us because, generally speaking, we have hours rather than minutes to adjust to the changing weather.
The weather forecasting in Alaska is good but not awesome. Alaska’s weather, while it may be relatively stable, is certainly not predictable. I put virtually no stock in a forecast more than 12 hours out. 24 hours out they can usually predict cloudy vs sunny or windy vs calm, but the specifics regarding wind velocity, cloud height, and precipitation are generally wrong until within 12 hours. I can hardly believe the certainty with which people depend on forecasts in the Lower-48. I once heard a friend planning a barbeque 5 days in advance based on the forecast, and I nearly died laughing. In Alaska we say, “Fools and strangers attempt to predict the weather”. On the flip side, Patagonia is so fickle and unpredictable that it makes Alaska look like we’ve got access to a crystal ball.
So much of weather is simple perception. I deal intimately with weather everyday as I fly, and the dynamic’s of it are fascinating to me. Just as soon as I think I’ve got something figured out regarding winds, or cloud formation I experience the exact opposite and I am left scratching my head. Wind in the mountains is probably the most fascinating to me as it is the variable that gives me the most grey hair. Wind in the mountains is unpredictable, freakishly powerful, and totally invisible.
Blue Ice Aviation Hoodies and T’s for sale here